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Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Torrido clima scientifico

Se la storia della scienza ha qualcosa da insegnarci, è che non c’è posto in una società libera per un autoproclamatosi Comitato Centrale della Verità Scientifica”.
Questa frase di Russel Seitz nel Wall Street Journal (art. solo x abbonati, riportata da IlFoglio), la postiamo in cima e gode della nostra convinta adesione.
a) Vale per chi vorrebbe porre "limiti etici" alla ricerca, scordandosi che l'etica andrebbe applicata agli utilizzi, alle applicazioni, più che al conoscere e e allo scoprire in sè.
Nemmeno il duro Dio dell'Antico Testamento nasconde ad Adamo l'albero della Conoscenza nel Giardino dell'Eden, anzi glie lo indica; lo avverte che meglio sarebbe per tutti se non ne MANGIASSE il frutto, facesse poi come gli pareva.
[Inciso: uncorrect fino in fondo, trovo che la palese superiorità delle religioni fondate sul Libro quello Giusto, nei confronti dell'Islam ad esempio, si riveli fin dal racconto della Genesi, nella sua profonda comprensione della mission e delle caratteristiche dell'Uomo. Fine inciso]
b) Lo stesso monito vale ovviamente e in uguale misura per tutti quelli che ogni tanto fanno gli inconsapevoli chierici dello scientismo, e se n'escono con i loro "è scientificamente provato che ..." etc.etc., che per i loro orecchi orecchianti vorrebbe suonar come definitivo.
La scienza è sempre definitiva, ma si sa, solo fino alla prossima scoperta; un giorno, rideranno delle nostre convinzioni esattamente come noi ridiamo della Terra piatta; il buon Popper ammoniva che ogni risultato scientifico dev'essere "falsificabile" (cioè deve sempre essere immaginabile un ulteriore esperimento, che in linea di principio sia in grado di dimostrarne la fallacia), altrimenti scientifico non è.
c) Il precetto vale infine anche per chi vorrebbe indicare "direzioni corrette" alla ricerca stessa. Non è altro che un caso (b) esteso, una metastasi del cancro che spesso divora ignari protagonisti dell'avanzamento della scienza, troppo presi dalla "ineluttabile verità" della scoperta in sè.

La Royal Society Londinese è un esempio. Con fare inquisitorio e scandalizzato, sta chiedendo a una ditta privata come la Exxon di interrompere il finanziamento di 39 fra organizzazioni e centri studi .
Il tempio della scienza (liberal), che ha ironicamente come motto "Nullius in verba", stila una lista nera di scienziati che non accettano le previsioni catastro-ecologiche del “rapporto Stern" sui cui si fonda il Protocollo di Kioto. C'è da stupirsi, mi chiedo, che dallo stesso milieu se n'escano "docenti" che chiedono di boicottare i rapporti con le Università Israeliane?
In particolare due Centri, il George Marshall e il Competitive Enterprise Institute, sono colpevoli secondo la Royal Society di lesa Verità Scientifica: l'aver diffuso un rapporto in cui spiegano che l’innalzamento della temperatura non è legato alle emissioni nell’atmosfera. Un altro, l’Harvard-Smithsonian Center si permette di mostrare come le temperature correnti siano due gradi più basse rispetto al “caldo periodo medievale” (quella fase climatica intorno all'anno 1000 durante la quale un certo Erik il Rosso potè installarsi in una terra battezzata senza ironia "Green-Land" - in foto, rovine della chiesa di Brattahlid in Groenlandia, villaggio da lui fondato nel 982dc).
Le fasi climatiche del Pianeta sono tra l'altro esperienza recente: una fase mini-glaciale documentatissima fu in atto tra il 1300 e il 1800dc: i passi alpini erano impraticabili per lunghi periodi dell'anno (ricordiamo le epiche discese in Italia di Napoleone), la laguna di Venezia era talmente ghiacciata in inverno da sopportare il transito di colonne di carri verso la città.
Ma tant'è, purtroppo è insito nella scienza non l'investigare intellettualmente puro alla ricerca della "verità" che molti (profani e non) immaginano, bensì la lotta senza esclusione di colpi per accaparrarsi i fondi necessari per pagarsi stipendi e gruppi di ricerca (e quindi fama cattedre e prebende), evitando che la "torta" venga divisa in troppi rivoli. Molto, pure troppo umano.
Si spiegano così le "feroci" prese di posizione contro le teorie alternative da parte dell'establishment scientifico; disposti senza troppi problmei a trasformarsi in utili idioti e a mettersi al servizio delle ideologie, purchè paghino e promuovano.
Da questo punto di vista, la presa di posizione della Royal Society l'è una gran brutta conferma: i liberal hanno saldamente in mano l'establishment accademico, non solo in Italia.

379 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

d'accordo con i punti 'a' e 'b', e probabilmente anche con 'c', anche se e' un po' ambiguo quindi non son sicuro. chiaramente invece non sono d'accordo con la frase incima - la verita' scientifica esiste, per esempio che 'la terra non e' piatta'. di conseguenza, esistono coloro che ne sono in possesso, as opposed to quelli che non ne sono in possesso. e quindi, almeno concettualmente, fuori dal tempo, nell'iperuranio platonico, esiste anche il comitato centrale.

mi stupisco che tu non abbia parlato di popper, ma forse mi e' sfuggito (freud, dicevamo...:-)

ciao,
nullo

7/11/06 5:45 PM  
Blogger Abr said...

Come non cito Popper? Punto (b) ...
Sei trooooppo freudiano :-DD

Eh, la verità scientifica ...
La Terra è piatta: se fossimo pulci, o il raggio terrestre fosse molto più grande, o non fossimo divenuti capaci di volare, dirlo costituirebbe una approssimazione del tutto accettabile.

Di fatto lo è stato, nonostante si sapesse della sfericità dai tempi di Eratostene, sino a quasi tutto il medioevo.
E' questo è un approccio troppo engineering e poco espistemologico?.
O forse, è addirittura Feyerabend, altro che Popper ...

Meglio forse l'esempio del dualismo onda-particella. Cos'è "vero"?
Che le due essenze delle cose "esistono" tutt'e due. Contemporaneamente.
La prova sperimentale? Una coda in autostrada ...
Tra cento anni rideranno di queste "credenze". Come noi ridiamo della teoria dell' "etere luminifero".
La differenza tra noi è che tu ritieni che alla fine, l'Iperuranio esista.
E' solo perchè tu hai la Fede .. ;-)

7/11/06 6:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ben detto!!
E' quello che volevo dire con il mio modesto scritto odierno.
Mi riferisco al Prof. Sermonti in special modo: viene ferocemente boicottato perchè "creazionista".
Lui può permettersi di infischiarsene a causa della Sua autorità scientifica ma, quanti avrebbero il coraggio di dimostrare il loro dissenso dalla teoria che va per la maggiore?
Un saluto

7/11/06 9:49 PM  
Blogger Fabio said...

La differenza è che certi fatti sono ormai acquisiti, e mi sembra difficile che future scoperte possano ribaltare le cose. Per esempio, meccanica newtoniana; teoria della relatività; elettromagnetismo; le parti più vecchie della meccanica quantistica; evoluzione.

La discriminante è che tutte queste teorie funzionano in pratica, e permettono di costruire macchine e dispositivi utili, affidabili e prevedibili. Se quello che sappiamo della fisica dello stato solido non corrispondesse al vero, non sarebbe possibile costruire il processore Pentium D dentro a questo computer.

Certo di questi tempi la question forse più politicizzata è il riscaldamento globale antropogenico, e gli effetti deleteri di questa situazione si vedono.

7/11/06 10:18 PM  
Blogger Otimaster said...

Sempre bravissimo, ma nel merito del post preferisco non entrare, è un campo minato e ogni capoverso sarebbe degno di un commento lungo come un post per non correre il rischio di essere fraintesi.

8/11/06 12:25 AM  
Blogger Abr said...

Tnxs Fort, l'importante è che nessuna parte neghi legttimità di esistere all'altra parte: vinca l'idea più convincente nel singolo momento storico (ad oggi è indubbiamente l'evoluzionismo), ma del doman scirntifico non v'è certezza.

fabio, concordo che in qualche modo la validità delle teorie scientifiche si misuri dai "risultati" concreti che produce; solo che tipicamente la nuova teoria "modellizza" fenomeni non spiegati da quella vecchia, includendola come "caso particolare". COsì la meccanica quantistica con la meccanica newtoniana, caso particolare a basse masse e basse velocità ed accelerazioni.
Sono i casi ancora "open" come il cambiamento del clima dove si confrontano e scontrano teorie distinte i campi di battaglia più sanguinosi. Trovo che tentare di chiudere la bocca all'avversario tagliandogli politicamente i fondi sia scorretto, tutto qui.

Tnxs Master, l'essere frainteso è l'ultima delle mie preoccupazioni: fraintende chi fraintendere vuole.

8/11/06 10:40 AM  
Blogger Hermes said...

è come dici tu: quando ci stanno di mezzo "i danari" non c'è dignitò scientifica che tenga.

Io poi personalmente sono sempre stato affascinato da quelli che non capiscono la differenza tra religione (ricerca del perchè) e scienza (ricerca del come) e le confondono scambiandole, e quindi applicano poi categorie "religiose" come l'etica, facendole discendere dalla scienza.
Anche questa è superstizione, no?

13/11/06 2:06 PM  
Blogger Abr said...

la peggiore delle superstizioni hermes, tnxs.

13/11/06 9:42 PM  
Blogger Abr said...

Sir,
while I thank you very much for your comment here, let me point out that
the use of your sentence I did here is somewhat different form what you perceived.

This post is not presented as a translation of your article on WSJ; I just took a sentence of yours to underline how dangerous it is, as "scientific consensus" could become "revealed and undisputable Coranic truth".

All considerations about climate changes in the post are mine (Greenland population, Alps passes in Napoleon's age, Venice Lagoon freeze in XVII Century etc.); I am not suggesting my readers a positioning of yours about that.

I am glad you reject the political inflation of climate change into catastrophe, that's exactly the point of this post.

On the other side, I am not denying the scientific consensus as to the realty of radiative forcing due to CO2 and other gases emitted by technical civilization; the problem is exactly in the word "consensus".

As Royal Society proved out by asking Exxon to cut fundings to some "Unfaithful" Institutes, the "temperature" against who is not "politically correct" on Global Warming is becoming unbearable even inside the scientific community, not to mention journalists and politicians.

That's bad, and even worst than that, it's not more "scientific" as an approach (I mention Popper's falsification theory in the post).
Thank you again for your comment.

26/12/06 12:10 PM  
Blogger Abr said...

Ah, Mr.Russel, I forgot:
as per Your request, I am going to translate your comment and post it.
I read also your article you linked here; I found it not only interesting, but also a confirmation of my thesis about climate changes in Greenland (and in the Planet in general).
In fact, I am not denying climate fluctuates over time, and I am not denying it is doing it again; differently form you certainties and from the so called "scientific consensus", I am just questioning HOW DEEP that fluctuation process is influenced/-able by Humans.

26/12/06 2:08 PM  
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